I first wrote about this in March 2009 (see the old post); apparently Fortune magazine had the idea about the same time I did (see the Fortune article on e-readers). There have been numerous developments since then (I really like the Fujitsu reader; see the Crave posting and the Technology Review article on it), including the rumored Apple tablet/e-reader.
I still think all the commentary and wish lists are heading in the wrong direction. All these people want to cram all the functionality of a laptop into a tablet device (in case of the Apple tablet) or they want to reinvent the publishing industry.
You all forget that the iPod did not change the music industry in terms of the product. It changed how the product was delivered, replacing the physical CD with a digital version. Only within the last few months (eight years after the introduction of the iPod), have there been any changes to the end product (for example, the Tyrese Gibson comic book plus music).
So why is everyone so obsessed with changing the entire publishing industry with an electronic reader? I can’t figure this argument out; it’s like doing an experiment with too many variables. If the experiment fails, you won’t know why. Was it the electronic reader device itself? Was it the new reader format/style? Following this path is the surest way to fail.
The electronic reader market needs to follow the iPod’s successful path and be evolutionary, rather than revolutionary. How would I do it?
- The first generation device duplicates the dead tree experience in an electronic device. A boring, but necessary step to see if people will even use the things to read on. Based on the success of the Kindle, the answer is yes, at least as applied to books. The jury is still out on magazines and newspapers (though Plastic Logic’s QUE reader should help with that). The screen and the delivery mechanism need to be perfected at this stage. There will be a few iterations, until there’s a color screen with a significantly long battery life (say, 8-10 hours).
- Articles and ads get interactive. The device now needs to incorporate some Web-type functionality, to allow articles to include links to additional articles/information and ads are also click-able for additional information. Multiple iterations at this stage as well, with the articles and ads becoming more sophisticated in terms of their interactivity. Possibly including location-based interactivity as well. By the time we get to this stage, battery life should have advanced enough to make the wireless access not be such a large battery drain.
- The content format changes. This is what people are thinking about now, but as you can see, it doesn’t make sense to do this first.
There may be some refinements to these stages, but I think that this is the best way to develop the electronic reader platform. Jumping ahead will likely lead to failure.